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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Big names ready to pounce at Bay Hill

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The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be the fourth of eight “signature events” this season, which offer a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “signature” just about guarantees that all of the top players on TOUR will be in attendance this week. Of the 55 players eligible entering last week, only Tony Finau will not be in the field. 

Past Winners at Bay Hill

  • 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
  • 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
  • 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
  • 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
  • 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
  • 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
  • 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-17)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats For Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Matthieu Pavon (+1.61)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.31)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.18)
  4. Adam Scott (+0.93)
  5. Tom Kim (+0.78)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (+1.12) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
  3. Sam Burns (+0.69)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+0.67)
  5. Min Woo Lee (+0.66)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces will be some of the fastest players see all season long.

SG: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) over past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.08)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+0.93) 
  3. Harris English (+0.82) 
  4. Eric Cole (+0.77)
  5. Adam Svensson (+0.69)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Matthieu Pavon (+2.01)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.00)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
  4. Adam Scott (+1.28)
  5. Corey Conners (+1.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Florida

With certain players favoring different regions of the country, I’m once again going to incorporate Strokes Gained: Total in the state of Florida.

SG: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.10)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+1.87)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+1.82) 
  4. Justin Thomas (+1.68)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (25%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Lightning (18%), SG: Ball Striking (20%) and SG: Florida (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele 
  2. Scottie Scheffler
  3. Adam Svensson 
  4. Sam Burns 
  5. Kurt Kitayama
  6. Corey Conners
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Cameron Young
  9. Wyndham Clark
  10. Tom Kim

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is coming off a T22 finish at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.44) and also gained 1.6 strokes on approach. Rory has played sparingly so far this season, so the solid finish last week in Florida was a good way for the Northern Irishman to gain some momentum heading into the signature event at Bay Hill.

Rory has been absolutely spectacular at Bay Hill throughout his career. In his last seven trips to the course, the four-time major champion is yet to finish worse than 13th. He won the event in 2018 and has finished 4th in 2017, 5th in 2020, and runner-up last season.

In his past 24 rounds, Rory ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (by a significant margin), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on firm and fast Bermudgrass greens.

Thus far in 2024, the big names haven’t been winning on the PGA Tour. I believe that changes with a Rory McIlroy victory at one of the world’s most iconic courses.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood has played great golf in the state of Florida throughout his career. The Englishman has eight career top-10 finishes in the Sunshine State, including three of them at Bay Hill (2017, 2019 and 2021). 

Although Tommy hasn’t been known as a “winner” in the United States throughout his career, it seems as if the 33-year-old turned a last season. He had ten top-ten’s worldwide including some encouraging results in big events such as T5’s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s also started 2024 similarly to how he played in 2023, winning the Dubai Invitational back in January. In his most recent start, Fleetwood finished 10th at the Genesis Invitational. 

Tommy may have never won on American soil, but he’s taken his game to another level. He’s now one of the best players on the PGA Tour and a tough scoring, windy event in Florida would be a perfect scenario for Fleetwood to finally get that first victory in the United States. 

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19th Hole

Scottie Scheffler makes case over major talking point in distance debate

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Prior to this week’s Open Championship, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler spoke about the “distance issue” in professional golf.

The reigning Masters champion gave the 8th hole at Royal Troon, called “Postage Stamp,” as an example as to how holes don’t need to be lengthened to be more difficult.

“No. 8 is a good little way to almost step back in time and control your ball a bit more.

“You don’t have to make a par-three 230 yards to make it a great hole. It can be 120 yards.

“I think holes like 12 at Augusta and 17 at Sawgrass, the best par-threes in the world are short par-threes. They’re not overly long par-threes.”

“It leaves a lot of opportunity for you to hit a shot.

“If I don’t hit the green on No. 8, it’s mostly likely going to be a bogey unless you’re in the front of the green.

“If you miss it in the right bunker or the left bunker — if you hit it in the left bunker, you’re going to be glad to be making a bogey because it’s probably going to plug, and you’ll be hitting up-and-down for your bogey.

“I think great little, short holes like that are fun.

“I think it’s an underrated skill for guys nowadays to be able to control your ball, and I think it’s something we need to encourage in our game, not just building golf courses longer and longer.

“You can make a short hole with a small green, and it’s pretty dang tough.”

One of the major obstacles of Royal Troon this week will be the bunkering. The fairway bunkers on the course are extremely penal and most will require a splash out into the fairway rather than a shot at the green.

“One of the things I liked that the R&A changed this year from last year was the bunkering,” he said.

“Last year I thought it was a bit silly how they flattened out each bunker.

“The bunkers are still a penalty enough when the ball isn’t up against the lip.

“It was a bit of luck whether or not your ball would bury into the face because you have a flat bunker and a wall that’s going to go right into it.”

“As long as you build a little bit of slope into it, you can allow guys the opportunity to get out of the bunker.

“If you’re on the greens, it allows for opportunity for guys to either take on the lip or play smart and play sideways.

“It leaves more opportunity for great shots and risk and reward around the greens and the fairways because you have an opportunity to hit a great shot or just play it safe and go out sideways.

“I love how they changed how they rake the bunkers this year with the more traditional sloping coming off the walls.”

Scheffler is set to begin his quest for a second major championship of 2024 on Thursday.

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19th Hole

Shane Lowry says this prevalent criticism surrounding Rory McIlroy makes his ‘blood boil’

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Rory McIlroy has been in the headlines since his Sunday collapse at last month’s U.S. Open. Analyst Smylie Kaufman and swing coach Hank Haney have wondered aloud if McIlroy should have hired a new caddie, while others wonder if he has the mental game to ever win another major championship.

This week, McIlroy’s friend and fellow Irishman, Shane Lowry, has come to the defense of the four-time major champion.

While speaking with BBC Sport NI, Lowry said the criticism makes his “blood boil”.

“It makes my blood boil, to be honest,”

“They don’t see how hard Harry works and how good he is for Rory.

“Just because he’s not standing in the middle of the tee box like other caddies who want to be seen and heard doesn’t mean that his voice isn’t heard by Rory.

“When you get to tournaments, he’s always there before Rory, he’s always walking the course. He works harder than any of the caddies out here.”

Lowry added that he still believes Rory will get another major.

“He’s the best caddie for Rory and I’ll argue that with anyone who wants to argue it with me,”

“It’s tough for him. Northern Ireland and Ireland is a small place. I’m sure it’s tough for Harry to go home and deal with all that but he’ll be alright.

“That’ll make the next one they get together all the sweeter.”

McIlroy will try to add to the tally once again this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.

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19th Hole

Brandel Chamblee on why he feels Rory’s game ‘deteriorates in the biggest moments’

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Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee has been a critic of Rory McIlroy when it comes to the Northern Irishman’s decade-long major championship drought.

After McIlroy came up short at the U.S. Open last month, Chamblee criticized his iron play.

“Don’t get me wrong, I love Rory’s golf swing, it’s beautiful. It’s beautiful. But he’s now finished in the top-ten in the last six U.S. Opens and he’s averaging in those six U.S. Opens – because I just looked here in strokes gained approach – about 30th. Guess what they do not do? Win U.S. Opens.

“The guys who win U.S. Opens finish first, second, third, fourth. Brooks Koepka in U.S. Opens – first, second, most greens and best iron shots, strokes gained approach.

“Rory consistently underperforms in his iron play – and that is the most important statistic.”

In the lead up to this week’s Open Championship at Royal Troon, Brandel is questioning McIlroy’s major championship preparation, after posing the question “Why does Rory’s game deteriorate in the biggest moments?”

Speaking at Royal Troon, Chamblee said

“When you look at what the best athletes do when they play to a higher level, they are being themselves.

“They are extraordinary athletes; they don’t have their minds cluttered up and, of course, their focus narrows the closer they get to the lead because of the confidence they get from that.

“So, it seems to me that Rory over time has enquired a lot from swing instructors or putting instructors or sports psychologists or deep dives from YouTube.

“With this generation, there is an epidemic of people doing deep dives on YouTube and getting cluttered up with curiosity.

“When I see Rory, it looks to me like he has either too many swing thoughts in his mind or he has too many voices in his head, it’s the only logical conclusion that I can draw.

“Why can one person be so obviously different getting into the lead or close to the lead and so obviously different when he has the lead.”

McIlroy will look to finally get over the line this week at Royal Troon, where he finished T5 back in 2016.

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