19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla
The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.
The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.
Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.
Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.
The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.
Past Winners of the PGA Championship
- 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
- 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
- 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
- 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
- 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Valhalla
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.
Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Shane Lowry (+1.25)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
- Jordan Smith (+1.05)
- Tom Hoge (+.96)
- Corey Conners (+.94)
2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
- Keith Mitchell (+.90)
- Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
- Ludvig Aberg (+.82)
Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs
Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Jon Rahm (+2.56)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
- Shane Lowry (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses
Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.60)
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships
One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
- Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
- Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens
Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
- Justin Rose (+0.93)
- J.T. Poston (0.87)
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways
Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:
- Justin Thomas (+1.53)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
- Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.23)
2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).
- Brooks Koepka
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Shane Lowry
- Alex Noren
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Young
- Keith Mitchell
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Billy Horschel
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Adam Schenk
- Chris Kirk
- Sahith Theegala
- Min Woo Lee
- Joaquin Niemann
- Justin Thomas
2024 PGA Championship Picks
Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)
At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.
Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.
Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.
In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)
Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.
At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.
Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.
Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.
Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)
There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.
Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.
Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.
Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)
I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.
Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.
Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.
Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.
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19th Hole
Rory McIlroy admits he was left in ‘disbelief’ by Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup appointment
On Monday, the world of golf was put into collective disbelief when Keegan Bradley was appointed as the 2025 United States team Ryder Cup captain. The vast majority of fans and media lauded the choice, but it was a surprising one, nonetheless.
During his pre-tournament press conference, Rory McIlroy, who was the leading point scorer in the 2023 Ryder Cup, was asked for his thoughts on the Bradley appointment.
“I think it has come as a surprise for everyone. We had dinner in London on Sunday night with Luke [Donald], and he told us then.
“Its’ an interesting appointment. The youngest captain since Arnold Palmer I think was a playing captain as 34. But he knows Bethpage very well. He went to university in the area. He’s obviously very passionate about the Ryder Cup.
‘It’s certainly a departure from what the US have done over the last few years, and time will tell if that’s a good thing or not.”
When he was asked how the room reacted while the European team was out to dinner, he said “disbelief.”
“I think disbelief, probably. I think Keegan was probably in disbelief, at some point, too, but it’s certainly an interesting pick.”
McIlroy got off to a hot start at the Scottish Open, where he is the defending champion. He will have to chase down Ludvig Aberg, who is leading after he completed his first 36 holes.
More from the 19th Hole
- Bryson explains last minute driver head switch and says he “probably shouldn’t have changed;” despite U.S. Open win
- The stunning numbers behind the rise in Bryson’s popularity following U.S. Open win
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
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19th Hole
‘The rules need to be enforced’ – Nelly Korda on slow play on the LPGA Tour
Slow play has once again become a topic of discussion in professional golf. Earlier this week, LIV Golf’s Thomas Pieters said he believes players on the DP World Tour are “cheating” due to the fact that they are knowingly taking more time to hit their shots than the rules allow.
It’s in the R&A’s rule book how much time you can take so in my eyes they are cheating.. ?????
— Thomas Pieters (@Thomas_Pieters) July 7, 2024
Yesterday, LPGA Tour superstar, Nelly Korda, spoke on the subject of slow play as well.
The 25-year-old is preparing for the Evian Championship this week, where Carlota Ciganda was disqualified last year for slow play.
After last year’s event, Nelly supported the decision that led to Ciganda’s disqualification.
“I really like Carlota. She’s a great person. I enjoy playing with her. I am a fast player, but I would say at the end of the day the rules of golf are the rules of golf, and it’s good that it’s being enforced.”
This week at her pre-tournament press conference, she doubled down on her stance.
“If I was a spectator and I was out here for five-and-a-half hours to six hours, you know, it’s tough to watch. You want to watch a sport that’s continuously moving and not continuously stalling. I would say I think it’s really important for the rules officials to enforce the rules of golf.”
“I just think the faster people play is better for the game,” Korda said. “The rules need to be enforced and we have seen that. I think the LPGA Tour is doing a better job. I still think there is some room for improvement, and it’s going to be better for the game of golf if there aren’t three groups on one hole.
“I know there is tough golf courses and conditions too that you need to take into account. But at the end of the day, the more we improve the pace of play the more people are going to be interested in watching, coming out and not just watching on TV.”
Korda comes into the major championship missing her last three cuts after winning six of eight events to start the season.
More from the 19th Hole
- Bryson explains last minute driver head switch and says he “probably shouldn’t have changed;” despite U.S. Open win
- The stunning numbers behind the rise in Bryson’s popularity following U.S. Open win
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
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19th Hole
‘Never thought I would say this…’ – NFL star Sauce Gardner makes huge claim after picking up golf
NFL cornerback, Sauce Gardner, has recently caught the golf bug and has documented his early golf journey on social media.
The New York Jets star took to X once again on Wednesday, saying golf was harder than football.
Never thought I would say this, but golf is harder than football.
— SAUCE GARDNER (@iamSauceGardner) July 10, 2024
“Never thought I would say this, but golf is harder than football.”
I don’t think many would disagree with Gardner’s revelation, but it’s interesting to see a football player say it, nonetheless.
One account, “LIV Golf Insider”, replied to Gardner and it seemed to resonate with the way most fans feel.
“Nobody on the planet thinks football is harder to play than golf.”
Gardner is running out of time to work on his golf game with football season right around the corner.
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