19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Canadian Open betting preview: Breakthrough PGA Tour winner likely in Canada

Published

1 month ago

May 27, 2024

The PGA Tour is heading north of the border to play the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club.

This will be the seventh time that Hamilton Golf and Country Club will be hosting the Canadian Open. The previous six winners were Rory McIlroy (2019), Scott Piercy (2012), Jim Furyk (2006), Bob Tway (2003), Tommy Armour (1930) and James Douglas Edgar (1919).

Hamilton Golf and Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,084 yards and features greens that are a Bentgrass and Poa Annua blend. The course has been open since 1915 and is one of the oldest golf clubs in Canada.

Since we’ve seen it last, the course underwent a $8.5-million restoration guided by Martin Ebert.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week. Notable players include Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala and Alex Noren.

Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

2023: Nick Taylor (-17, Oakdale)

2022: Rory McIlroy (-19, St. George’s)

2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, Hamilton)

2018: Dustin Johnson (-23, Glen Abbey)

2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21, Glen Abbey)

2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12, Glen Abbey)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats for Hamilton Golf and Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Hamilton Golf and Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. With the winning score likely being very low, players will need to be dialed with their approach shots.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Corey Conners (+1.14)
Kelly Kraft (+1.06)
Rory McIlroy (+0.88)
Patton Kizzire (+0.87)
Alex Noren (+0.76)

2. Good Drive %

Hamilton is a short golf course, so keeping the ball in the fairway, or just off, will be more important than bombing the ball this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Kelly Kraft (+89.3%)
Daniel Berger (+87.9%)
Nate Lashley (+87.6%)
Chan Kim (+86.6%)
Aaron Rai (+86.1%)

3. Bogey Avoidance %

I expect golfers to go low this week, in order to compete, limiting bogeys will be crucial.

Bogey Avoidance % Over Past 24 Rounds:

Alex Noren (+10.6%)
Brice Garnett (+10.6%)
Aaron Rai (+11.3%)
Kevin Tway (+11.4%)
Henrik Norlander (+11.4%)

4. Strokes Gained: Total in Canada

This stat will boost the players who’ve done well in Canada over the past 36 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Total in Canada Over Past 36 Rounds

Rory McIlroy (+4.28)
Tommy Fleetwood (+3.07)
Aaron Rai (+2.91)
C.T. Pan (+2.80)
Gary Woodland (+2.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting

Shorter courses with a lot of birdies being made tend to turn into putting contests. I believe a good putter will win the RBC Canadian Open.

Strokes Gained: Putting Over Past 24 Rounds

Mackenzie Hughes (+1.04)
S.H. Kim (+0.84)
Matt Kuchar (+0.74)
Ben Griffin (+0.72)
Sahith Theegala (+0.66)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (30%), Good Drive % (25%), Strokes Gained: Canada (15%), Bogey Avoidance % (15%), SG: Putting (15%).

Aaron Rai
Rory McIlroy
Sahith Theegala
Patton Kizzire
Justin Lower
Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood
Alex Noren
Kelly Kraft
Jhonnatan Vegas

2024 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +1800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood was incredibly close to winning last year’s RBC Canadian Open. The Englishman took Canadian Nick Taylor to four playoff holes before losing on Taylor’s miraculous eagle putt from 72 feet.

Despite being at a different course this year, Fleetwood is still a great fit for this event. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 23rd in the field in good drive percentage and seventh in bogey avoidance. The course is a shorter, plotters track, which will suit Fleetwood’s ability to hit it accurately from tee to green.

Tommy has gained strokes off the tee in six consecutive events. Those events include some big events such as The Masters, the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship. In those six starts, he has three top-15 finishes.

It’s been well documented that Fleetwood is yet to win on American soil and has looked like a different player when in contention outside of the United States. While it’s most definitely a mental hurdle that the 33-year-old will need to overcome, it doesn’t hurt that this event will be north of the border.

Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. Fleetwood finished 2nd at Royal Portrush in 2019 and T10 at Royal Liverpool in 2023.

Backing Tommy has been frustrating at times, but I’m still of the mindset that betting on talent will eventually pay dividends.

Alex Noren +2500 (BetMGM)

Alex Noren is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. The Swede has an incredible eight straight top-25’s on Tour, with two of those being top-ten finishes. Noren has gained strokes on approach and around the green in all eight starts and has gained strokes off the tee in seven of eight.

Despite the strong results, the concern with Noren has been his inability to truly get into contention. However, this golf course feels like the right one for him to change that. He’s not incredibly long off the tee, so the shorter layout should help him. In his last 24 rounds, Noren ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th in Good Drive Percentage and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance.

Noren’s ability to keep the ball in the ideal spots and limit mistakes should serve him well at Hamilton this week. In an event where accurate drivers should shine; he will have an advantage on the field. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but the 41-year-old has ten wins on the European Tour. Being outside of the U.S. certainly won’t hurt Noren’s case.

Sam Burns +2800 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns had an excellent showing in Canada a few years ago, finishing in a tie for fourth place at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open a week after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge.

After a hot start to the season, Burns has struggled over the past few months, but has seemed to find some form with his irons in recent weeks. He finished T13 at the Wells Fargo Championship and gained 2.0 strokes on approach for the week. His irons were even better in the two rounds at the PGA Championship (+1.51 strokes per round), but a balky putter cost him the weekend, as he lost 5.1 strokes on the greens.

Burns is a player who can win an event with a hot putter and has done so in the past. He can make birdies in bunches and is one of the few players in the field that can win in both a difficult event and a shootout.

Robert MacIntyre +8000 (FanDuel)

Robert MacIntyre showed some life at the PGA Championship, finishing in a tie for 12th. For the week, MacIntyre ranked 16th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 18th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

The 27-year-old is a high upside player who has shown he can compete in big events. He’s also been putting great recently which I believe is one of the most important factors this week. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

We’ve seen MacIntyre play well at Open Championships and Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. MacIntyre finished T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019.

Bobby Mac has gone toe-to-toe with some of the world’s best players at the Ryder Cup, and I believe has the right mentality to beat anyone if he finds himself in contention down the stretch.

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19th Hole

Smylie Kaufman says Rory McIlroy’s caddie ‘really should have stepped in’ on crucial shot at U.S. Open

Published

7 hours ago

Jul 8, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

It’s been almost a month since the U.S. Open, but the disappointing finish for Rory McIlroy is still fresh on the minds of plenty of people in the golf world.

Amongst the people analyzing Rory’s performance on that Sunday at Pinehurst is golf analyst Smylie Kaufman. While appearing on Golf’s Subpar podcast, the former pro said he believes McIlroy’s caddie, Harry Diamond, should have done more to help Rory.

“I felt like (caddie) Harry Diamond really should have stepped in on the 15th hole.”

“He did not have the right club in his hands. And I felt like Rory could have taken control of the championship on 15 if he just hits it in the middle of the green. And he hit a good shot. But it just was the wrong club.

“And never, never was a 7-iron for Rory. Especially with a right flag. If the wind was down off the right, it’s not exactly a flag and a wind condition and the heat to be able to land it in a hula hoop, where you got to hit this kind of soft, spinny, fade 7-iron. It was an 8-iron all day, hit it in the middle of the green.”

Diamond’s place as McIlroy’s caddie has been called into question for almost a decade now, but many argue that Rory isn’t looking for a caddie to give an enormous amount of advice anyway.

“I don’t really ever see Harry stepping in a ton. Rory always, if he has a question, he’ll ask, but for the most part, Rory kind of goes and does his thing and he’s got a lot of feel,” Kaufman added. “In my head, as a player, when you execute a shot exactly how you’re supposed to and it ends up in a terrible spot, you have to look at, all right, what happened here. Because that’s what happened at the 15th hole.”

McIlroy would on to bogey holes 15, 16 and 18 and missed two putts under five feet on the latter bogeys. He would lose by one shot to Bryson DeChambeau, who made a magnificent up and down from the fairway bunker on the 18th hole to seal his 2nd U.S. Open victory.

Rory has shown no desire to move on from Diamond at any point and at the moment it doesn’t seem to be under consideration from the Northern Irishman.

The four-time major champion will tee it up at this week’s Scottish Open for the first time since his U.S. Open defeat.

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19th Hole

LIV pro narrowly escapes disqualification following airline mishap

Published

7 hours ago

Jul 8, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Over the weekend, a handful of LIV golfers found themselves in contention at the International Series Morocco.

Amongst those players was the Iron Heads’ Scott Vincent. Incredibly, the Zimbabwean played well despite almost missing his tee time after the airline misplaced his clubs.

Vincent’s tee time was 12:30 and he arrived at 12:34, which led to him narrowly escaping a disqualification. He did, however, receive a two-stroke penalty for being late. He then had to use a set of borrowed clubs for his first round of the important event.

Despite the penalty and the unfamiliar clubs, the 32-year-old was able to fire a 5-under 68, which left him just two shots off of the first-round lead.

After the round, Vincent spoke about his clubs and how he was able to adapt to the unique situation.

“A lot of people had clubs, bits and pieces, but obviously it is hard to make up a full set when you do not have anything, so we have a bit of a mixed bag here.

“I have talked a lot to myself about adapting, no matter what, whatever the situation might be. And so just being able to go out there with none of my stuff, even golf shoes, I am taking in the moment, and we will just take it as it comes.”

Vincent ended up finishing 13th for the week after posting rounds of 68-71-74-71.

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19th Hole

Ian Poulter explains decision to skip Open Championship qualifying

Published

7 hours ago

Jul 8, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

One of the major drawbacks for the players who decided to join LIV Golf is the lack of a path to qualify for major championships. Outside of the stars like Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Cam Smith who have won majors relatively recently, it’s been difficult for LIV golfers to get into the biggest events.

Among the players who aren’t exempt into majors is Ian Poulter. The 48-year-old could have chosen to attempt to play a qualifier to get in like Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood did, but he chose to skip it.

While speaking to talkSPORT, the Englishman gave his explanation.

“My world ranking is not high enough to get into The Open Championship.

“I had the ability go and qualify and I didn’t.

“I was on holiday with the family in Switzerland instead.

“That is what LIV Golf has given me, a bit more family time.

“I still have got a busy schedule with LIV playing 14 tournaments.”

This will make the 8th consecutive major that Poulter will miss.

He will tee it up this week at LIV Andalucia at Valderrama.